[投資] 大盤2萬2千點了，還可以存股嗎？（加權報酬指數與景氣對策信號分數圖表）

很多人都會問我：「現在股市在高點了，還能存股嗎？」我的答案是：當然可以啊！從過去的表現來看，股市長期來說都是上漲的。我們應該用至少30年以上的眼光來看，光是對比現在和過去的物價，就能發現這個趨勢。此外，各國政府其實都在維持一定的通膨率（大約2%），加上經濟穩步成長，長期來看股市上漲是大勢所趨。當然，途中難免會有波動，受到各種因素影響，但最終都會回到上升軌道上。

下圖顯示的是台灣股市的加權報酬指數，從2003年1月2日開始的數據顯示，股市整體上都是向右上方移動的。紅色線是200日移動平均線，期間出現了三次較大的回檔：分別是2009年的金融危機、2020年的新冠疫情，以及2022年因通膨、企業庫存過多和盈利下降所引發的回檔。雖然這些事件造成了明顯的下跌，但通常在一年內，市場都能重新回到上升的軌道。

FernHeart 蕨心圖表

我們在圖表中，加上另一個縱軸：景氣對策信號分數，如下圖：

FernHeart 蕨心圖表

過去20多年來，經濟總是經歷著景氣循環，藍燈變紅燈，紅燈又變藍燈。到了2024年9月，我們又看到紅燈亮起，似乎是景氣的高點了。但從長遠來看，現在的高點可能只是下一個循環的低點，至少歷史告訴我們，情況通常是這樣發展的。

那麼，大盤已經來到2萬2千點了，還能存股嗎？這個問題，就留給你自己來回答吧！

Many people ask me, "The stock market is at a high point now, can I still invest in stocks?" My answer is: of course you can! Looking at past performance, the stock market tends to rise in the long term. We should be looking at a timeframe of at least 30 years. You can see this trend by comparing current prices with those in the past. Moreover, governments worldwide are maintaining a steady inflation rate (around 2%), and with steady economic growth, the stock market is bound to rise in the long run. Naturally, there will be some fluctuations along the way due to various factors, but in the end, the market always returns to an upward trend.

The chart below shows Taiwan's Weighted Total Return Index, and the data since January 2, 2003, indicates that the market has been consistently moving upward. The red line represents the 200-day moving average. There have been three significant pullbacks: the 2009 financial crisis, the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, and the 2022 pullback due to inflation, excess corporate inventory, and declining profits. While these events caused noticeable drops, the market generally returned to its upward trend within a year.

Over the past 20 years, the economy has always gone through cycles, switching from blue to red, and then back to blue again. As of September 2024, we’re seeing another red light, which seems to signal a peak in the economy. But looking at the long term, this current peak might actually be the low point of the next cycle. At least, history tends to show us that’s how things go.

So, with the market at 22,000 points, is it still a good time to invest in dividend stocks? I’ll leave that question for you to answer!